Pokin Around: Who's the most accurate weather forecaster? (2024)

A few weeks ago I was watching KOLR10 in the morning when I heard the station boast — via a promotional ad — that it had the most accurate weather forecast in Springfield.

Hmmm. I thought, journalistically. Sez who?

Don't think that I'm a weather geek. I'm not. In fact, I've long suspected that the only purpose of the display of lava-lamp isobars was to carry this subliminal message — Must Watch More TV.

I've looked into the most-accurate claim and discovered that KOLR10 has been named most accurate three years in a row by a for-profit company called WeatheRate, based in Phoenix.

The company was created in 2003 by meteorologist Bruce A. Fixman. He employs three other people — two are meteorologists.

WeatheRate looks at the accuracy of weather forecasts at 320 TV stations in 85 markets. It added Springfield to its list five years ago.

The company reviews forecast data from the stations themselves — as many as 40 of them voluntarily submit their forecasts — and then compares the forecasts with the highs and lows and rain totals observed by the National Weather Service.

Fixman, 50, tells me he also puts an emphasis on the accuracy of predicting severe weather.

"We do all the research at our own expense," he says.

So how do you make money?

WeatheRate compiles its ranking and then calls each of the "most accurate" stations in the 85 markets and sells them the right to use the most-accurate designation in promotional ads. Some of the TV stations say sure. Some say no thanks.

When they say no, he says, "We don't then call the No. 2 most accurate station."

He wouldn't tell me how much his company charges, but said it depended on the size of the market.

Secrets to accuracy?

Jamie Warriner, 38, has been at KOLR10 since September 2011. He said that prior to coming here he worked at a station in Jacksonville, Fla., which also was rated most accurate by WeatheRate.

I asked his secrets to accuracy.

"As a meteorologist it is just like a reporter. You want to do the very best job you can do."

"To be honest, I don't watch any other station in the market. You do the job. You hope that your skill set is better than the next guy's or gal's."

Accuracy comes from mastering how to interpret and choose from the growing number of computer models that predict weather, and from being at a station long enough to know the nuances of local weather, Warriner says.

"If you do your job better than the next guy, that's great. We all go into the business — weather — and there are certain things that you have to do but that does not mean we all do them at the same level."

Of the four stations, KY3 is the only one that has its own Doppler radar tower, in Fordland. It was built in 2000.

All four local stations have access to the National Weather Service radar at the Springfield-Branson National Airport.

Warriner said the radar at the airport works just fine. The biggest improvement in radar is in the software that draws more information from radar. It's now possible, for example, to use radar to spot debris in a tornado.

"Back in the 1990s, having your own radar was a promotional tool," Warriner says. "It was like a billboard. You put a sign on it if you were the only guy in town that had it. I think the promotional side of that kind of thing has kind of faded."

Ron Hearst, 54, has been at KY3 for 22 years. He disagrees. The fact that KY3 has its own radar has two advantages.

First, the station can gather information seconds faster than the other stations that use the NWS radar at the airport. Seconds count in severe weather, he says.

Second, there's the Cone of Silence.

Radar can be tilted to gather data from various angles. But it can't look straight up. What that means is that there is a roughly five-mile area in northwest Springfield that the NWS radar cannot detect. But KY3's radar in Fordland can.

Yes, Hearst says, the Fordland radar has its own Cone of Silence, but that cone is mostly over uninhabited farmland.

Still, Warriner contends, KY3's radar is no big deal. The area in northwest Springfield within the cone is relatively small when there's a major storm.

"When severe weather is hitting the fan and you have multiple storms that you are tracking across our TV market — you are looking at the radar, you are looking at the weather chats going on and you are looking at Twitter. You don't have the luxury of watching one storm on the radar."

Experience counts

That's what Hearst says.

It's not surprising he would say that. He has the most experience. He started doing the weather at KSPR in 1986.

Then why — I ask — is KOLR 10 the most accurate in Springfield?

"The first time I ever heard of WeatheRate is when I received your email," Hearst tells me. "If WeatheRate wants to come in and challenge me, they are welcome to."

Experience helps not only with accuracy, Hearst says, but with familiarity.

"People are familiar with us. Brandon (Beck) and I have been here for 20 years apiece. People are used to seeing us. They are familiar with our style."

I ask Hearst which is more important, accuracy or the looks and likeability of the person on TV?

"I have seen people hired and fired for eye color," he says.

"But your best answer comes from viewers," he says. "If you live in Texas County and have 500 head of cattle, accuracy might mean a whole lot more to you than if you are sitting on a couch in Springfield."

Kevin Lighty, 32, has been at KSPR since 2007. He says success comes from both.

Lighty says he works at having an engaging on-air personality.

I wouldn't think it's hard for him, judging from his off-air personality. He's easy to like.

"The level I look for is that it's like I'm talking to a friend. I hope that comes across on TV. I do not want to be talking over their head on a science level. But, still, accuracy is key."

Lighty tells me that years ago WeatheRate determined KSPR to be most accurate in Springfield, but the station decided not to pay for the recognition.

He doesn't need feedback on his accuracy from a company in Arizona, he says. He gets it instantly via social media. His followers let him know via Twitter and Facebook.

Lighty tries to personalize the weather with things like a Trash Can Wind Meter — which measures the likelihood that the wind will blow your trash can into the neighbor's yard.

Early fascination

David Koeller, 25, is the new kid in the weather station in Springfield. He arrived at the Fox affiliate in 2011.

But he's like the other three in that he had an interest in storms and snow and tornadoes at a young age.

For example, Warriner recalls watching the Weather Channel at age 6.

Lighty was so fascinated by storms at age 5 that his mother had to yell at him to move away from the window during severe weather.

Koeller remembers the day a tornado touched down not far from his home in Colorado Springs.

That did it. He was smitten.

"I started studying meteorology when I was 5 years old," he says.

These are the views of Steve Pokin, the News-Leader's columnist. Pokin has been at the paper three years and over the course of his career has covered just about everything — from courts and cops to features and fitness. He can be reached at 836-1253, spokin@gannett.com, on Twitter @stevepokinNL or by mail at 651 N. Boonville, Springfield, MO 65806.